Prediction of Arthur Bouquier vs Mika Brunold at Roanne Challenger 10-06-25

• Second Serve Performance: Arthur Bouquier has a 42.54% win rate on second serve points in recent performances, while Mika Brunold edges slightly higher at 43.74%. Is this advantage in second serves enough for Brunold's favor? Yes, as it often correlates with match prediction accuracy.
• Return Game Analysis: Bouquier captures 46.14% of opponents' second serve points, whereas Brunold claims 47.35%. For first serve returns, Bouquier wins 26.30% while Brunold achieves 30.20%, suggesting Brunold’s superior return game.
• Handling Pressure: Bouquier saves 48.25% of breakpoints under pressure, compared to Brunold’s stronger 54.66% breakpoint save rate. Brunold's resilience under pressure could be pivotal.
• Overall Match Performance: In the past year, Bouquier won 54.55% of matches, with Brunold winning 59.09%. Does Brunold's overall higher win percentage hint at a favorite? It certainly suggests a stronger recent form.
• Surface Performance: Bouquier’s best surface is Hard with a 62% win rate, while Brunold excels on Indoor Hard (I.hard) with the same win percentage. Notably, Brunold has a weaker record on Hard surfaces.
• Competition Level: Bouquier has a higher win percentage (61.29%) in lower-tier tournaments compared to Brunold’s 58.93%, indicating Bouquier's slight advantage at Challenger/ITF levels.
• Opponent Quality: Bouquier faces slightly higher-ranked opponents, with an average ranking of 312.36, against Brunold’s 361.38, suggesting Bouquier might be more prepared for tougher matches.
• Deciding Sets: Bouquier wins 50% of deciding sets, far ahead of Brunold’s 31%, pointing to Bouquier’s better performance in critical match moments.

Editorial Prediction (October 5, 2025, UTC):

When evaluating the players' second serve performance, Mika Brunold demonstrates a marginal advantage, which often correlates positively with greater match success. This edge is further reinforced by Brunold's stronger return game statistics, showcasing adaptability and skill in gaining points from the opponent's service.

Breakpoints saved present another solid indicator of resilience during matches. Mika Brunold displays a notable proficiency in saving crucial points, which might translate into critical match turns. Coupled with a broader winning record over the past year, these attributes suggest Brunold enters the match with a powerful competitive foundation.

Despite Arthur Bouquier's proficiency at playing under pressure during deciding sets, which could be advantageous if the match reaches such a stage, Brunold's overall performance trends and ability to handle high-pressure situations provide a distinct overall advantage.

Taking all factors into account, including past head-to-head results and specific tournament performances, Mika Brunold is predicted to have the upper hand and is likely to emerge victorious in this upcoming tennis match.